#USDSGD Forecast: Overall Consolidation (4 June 2024)

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  • The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday, but as the session dragged on, we started to see the Singapore dollar strengthen.
  • We are currently trading around a couple of major moving averages, but the real problem during the session, at least as far as I can tell, was the PMI numbers coming out much weaker than anticipated.
  • At least in the ISM manufacturing PMI figures.

The S&P Global manufacturing PMI numbers came out better than anticipated, so it's a mixed bag. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we may continue the overall consolidation. It's worth noting that we have sliced through the 200 day EMA, but it's flat anyway, so I don't know how much I read into it.

A Magnet for Price

The 1.35 area seems to be a bit of a magnet for price, and therefore I think could be your mean for the moment. Just have to wait and see. But right now, I think we're just trying to sort out whether or not we rally from here or if we break back down. I suspect that if we can recapture the 1.3533 level, then the US dollar will continue to climb against the Singapore dollar, and you might see the US dollar strengthen.

Overall, keep in mind that USD/SGD is considered to be safety currency at one point or another, depending on what's going on. I do think you've got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of perhaps being able to take advantage of value. But if we were to break down below the 1.3420 level, that could open up the market to fresh selling. In that environment, we probably see the US dollar struggle against almost everything, not just the Singapore dollar. In other words, this is a very US centric type of currency market at the moment as we try to sort out what’s going on with the US economy.


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