#USDBRL Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Punish Real (11 June 2024)

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  • The US dollar has rallied again during the trading session on Monday against the Brazilian real, as we continue to see a lot of concerns around the world affecting emerging market currency such as this one.
  • All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of upward pressure, and I think at this point in time it does make a certain amount of sense that short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities.

Technical Analysis

AC several support levels that are excellent buying opportunities if you do in fact get the opportunity. Keep in mind that this is a pair that will be extraordinarily volatile at times because it is somewhat thinly traded during certain times of the day. That being said, I believe that the 5.30 level has now offered itself a bit of support, as it previously had been resistance. With that being the case, I like the idea of buying dips in bits and pieces and taking advantage of value any time, it shows up. After all, the US dollar is backed up by an economy that has seen a lot of bullish pressure due to the idea of jobs coming out hotter than anticipated.

People believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to stay tight with monetary policy, and that of course will continue to favor the US dollar as Brazil is considered to be a “risky economy”, despite the fact that the interest rate situation in Brazil is quite robust. However, when traders are not willing to take on a lot of risk in the emerging markets, Brazil is one of the first places they leave.

The 50-Day EMA is closer to the 5.17 level and is rising. I think it will offer a short-term floor if we do get some type of correction, but right now looks more likely that we go reaching to the 5.50 level above, as there is so much momentum. I have no interest in shorting this market and believe that any time we pull back its to be looked at as a buying opportunity.


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