#DAX & #SP500 Forecast (14 June 2024)

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Dax Forecast: Dips, Yet Uptrend Intact

  • The German index fell rather hard during the trading session on Thursday as we plunged towards the 18,250 euro level.
  • I suspect at this point in time we are still in the midst of some type of corrective phase and therefore we will get the occasional dip.
  • However, the uptrend is very much intact, and I just don't see that changing anytime soon.

I am a buyer of dips and I recognize that it is probably only a matter of time before we rally again, but I do buy the DAX in very small bits and pieces. This is not a time to get over levered looking for some type of massive bounce. I think ultimately the market is starting to focus on the idea of indecision in politics when it comes to the European Union, but there's also an argument that can be made then perhaps the global economy might be slowing down. After all, US numbers are starting to drop. The PPI numbers in the morning were off by three-tenths of a percent, which is a huge miss. That could have some traders worried about taking risks in general, but really at this point in time, I do think this ends up being a opportunity to start buying again, and eventually we will go looking to the 19,000 euro level.

Even If We Fall from Here…

Even if we fall from here, the 18,000 euro level should be rather supportive and perhaps even the 17,700 euro level. The market breaking down below there opens up the 200 day EMA, but I think that is probably a lot less likely at this point. I would say that the candlestick for the trading session on Thursday has been rather brutal, but when you look at the longer term trend, you can see that it is yet another noisy day, probably nothing more than that.

S&P 500 Forecast: Pulls Back a Bit on Thursday PPI Miss

  • The S&P 500 initially tried to rally, but we have pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday as the PPI numbers were lower than anticipated.
  • Traders are starting to rethink the entire behavior that they had after the FOMC meeting.
  • That being said the market does look very likely to pull back at this point, but I think the pullback more likely than not also attracts a lot of attention.

After all, the S&P 500 has been very strong for a while, and it does make a certain amount of sense that buyers continue to look at dips as a buying opportunity and perhaps value. The 5300 level underneath is a major resistance barrier that has been overcome. So now a massive amount of market memory probably comes into the picture. The 50 day EMA is reaching towards that area, and that certainly seems like a nice confluence of technical analysis that could help. On the other hand, if we do break above the highs of the candlestick from the Wednesday session, then it opens up a move to the 5500 level.

My target is about to get crushed

The 5500 level is my target for the year and I think we're getting there much quicker than I had anticipated. With this, I remain bullish, I look at dips as buying opportunities and I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market because the momentum has overran any type of fundamental analysis. In an environment like this, it’s almost impossible to try to fight the momentum, and it’s probably worth noting that Wall Street tends to run on momentum more than anything else. As long as they believe that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting rates later this year, then it makes a lot of sense that the stock markets continue to go higher, at least for the time being.

All that being said, you don’t want to get aggressive with your position size right away, and only add to an existing position in order to build up size. Volatility will continue to be a major issue, so please keep that in mind.

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