#ASX200 Forecast: Continues to Consolidate (14 June 2024)

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  • The Australian Stock Exchange has been very noisy as of late, as we continue to hang around the 7700 Australian dollars level.
  • The market is currently in the midst of a major triangle, suggesting that there is a certain amount of bullish pressure underneath but it is somewhat fleeting.
  • After all, you have to keep in mind that the Australian exchange is highly influenced by commodities, and although some commodities have really started to take off, we have seen some other ones cool off at the same time period.

Asia and global growth

I suspect that one of the biggest influences on the ASX 200 is going to be the global growth situation as countries start to see a bit of a slowdown. We have seen several countries and central banks around the world start to cut rates, and this of course is a sign that perhaps there are some problems. If that ends up being the case, some of the biggest materials producers in Australia will find themselves in trouble as customers cancel orders. BHP Group Ltd., Rio Tinto, and many others could find themselves falling. Remember, the ASX is highly sensitive to not only materials, but asian growth as well. We are starting to see concerns about third world countries struggling, with a lot of the previous bright growth areas struggling.

However, if we do continue to see central banks cutting interest rates, it is probably only a matter of time before traders start to draw the correlation between stimulus and commodities, especially hard commodities as you will see massive infrastructure projects come into the fold. If that ends up being the case, then the ASX 200 will probably spend quite a bit of time trying to catch up to other indices around the world such as the S&P 500 and the DAX. This isn’t a clear picture yet, but I think we are getting there, and it so far looks like the buyers might have the upper hand, if even just by a bit at this point in time.

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