#USDNOK Forecast: Looking for a Bottom (29 May 2024)

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  • The Norwegian krone has been strengthening for some time.
  • It looks like we are digging into an area that has been somewhat supported.
  • The 10.50 NOK level is an area that I think has been important multiple times due to the noise that we have seen around it.
  • It is a candidate for potential value hunting.

A lot of this is going to come down to what people feel about the US dollar in general and keep in mind that the Norwegian Kron is although a minor currency it is a country that people are comfortable investing in. This isn't the same thing as trading an emerging market but it does have a certain amount of influence from crude oil not as much as it once did against the US dollar but the Norwegian Kron certainly still does against most other currencies.

Will Buyers Return?

Now that we are down in this area, we will have to pay close attention because if we do break down below the 10.40 level, we could see a fall all the way back down to the 10 level. A rally at this point will have to deal with the 200 day EMA which is closer to the 10.65 level. If we can break above there, then the 50 day EMA near the 10.75 level comes into the picture.

I think you see some noise here as we are in an area that technically was consolidated just a couple of months ago. With this, pay close attention to the levels mentioned, as it could kick off the next big move in the USD/NOK pair, and it could also be heavily influenced by the US dollar and its overall attitude worldwide. More likely than not, the fate of this pair lies outside of it, as it will be a dollar centric move in general. All things being equal, this is a market that I would be looking for value, but the one thing you will need his momentum.

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