US Recession Watch, April 2020 - Recession Odds Artificially Low US RECESSION WATCH OVERVIEW: Recession odds are rising once again, no surprise due to recent jobless claims data around the coronavirus pandemic. T he 3m10s spread is currently 54.5-bps; on the last day of November it was 22.1-bps. But recession odds may be artificially low: there is an 18% chance of a chance of a recession hitting the United States within the next 12-months, according to the NY Fed Recession Probability Indicator . As US recession odds fade, traders have pushed back the timing of the next Fed rate cut to July 2020. DM For more Live Signals with fluctuate market situation and Impact: https://bit.ly/2QI6gO8 US RECESSION FEARS RISING RAPIDLY, IN A SENSE It’s been several months since our last update on US recession odds, in part due to the fact that this strategist was on paternity leave for the birth of his first child. But now that I’m back at the desk fulltime, a high-lev...
Wednesday Morning Big News NZD/USD Outlook Mired Ahead of RBNZ as RSI Sits in Oversold Territory: NZD/USD continued to chip away at the correction from the 2019 low (0.6204) as the US NFP report showed the world’s largest economy adding 225K jobs in January versus forecasts for a 165K print. A deeper look at the report revealed Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 3.1% from a revised 3.0% in December, and the pickup in job/wage growth may keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines as the central bank insists that the “current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation returning to our symmetric 2 percent objective.” At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.00% on February 12, but the central bank may endorse a dovish forward guidance at its first meeting for 2020 amid the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pa...
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