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Showing posts from May, 2024

#USDNOK Forecast: Looking for a Bottom (29 May 2024)

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The Norwegian krone has been strengthening for some time. It looks like we are digging into an area that has been somewhat supported. The 10.50 NOK level is an area that I think has been important multiple times due to the noise that we have seen around it. It is a candidate for potential value hunting. A lot of this is going to come down to what people feel about the US dollar in general and keep in mind that the Norwegian Kron is although a minor currency it is a country that people are comfortable investing in. This isn't the same thing as trading an emerging market but it does have a certain amount of influence from crude oil not as much as it once did against the US dollar but the Norwegian Kron certainly still does against most other currencies. Will Buyers Return? Now that we are down in this area, we will have to pay close attention because if we do break down below the 10.40 level, we could see a fall all the way back down to the 10 level. A rally at this point will have t

#USDMXN Forecast: US Dollar Tries to Rally Against Peso (29 May 2024)

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The US dollar initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday but turned around to show signs of strength against the Mexican peso. This will be interesting to watch, because we are getting fairly close to a major floor in the market, which is focused mainly on the 16 pesos level. While we are currently at the 16.68 level and do have some distance the close between now and that level, we will more likely than not continue to see quite a bit of volatility. Dynamics at play Keep in mind that the Mexican peso is one of the few currencies out there that has a much stronger interest rate than the US dollar, and of course when people are more “risk on” in their attitude, they tend to invest in Mexico as it is a major exporter to the United States. In fact, Mexico is the largest exporter to the United States and the world, as the deep globalization in the United States has most certainly had a major effect on Chinese trade, and now is starting to favor the Mexican trade. Beyond that, it’

#Gold Analysis: Geopolitical Tensions Could Support Gains (29 May 2024)

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Gold prices dipped on Wednesday from yesterday's highs near $2,365 an ounce. Investors continued to trim bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year following recent comments from officials and ahead of the key personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report. Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview that the Fed should hold off on cutting rates until inflation improves significantly. Thus, it could even raise rates if inflation fails to come down further. In general, traders are now focusing on personal consumption expenditures data scheduled for release on Friday, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of US inflation, which is expected to be in line with the Consumer Price Index, indicating that prices are not accelerating. At the same time, rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to enhance the appeal of a safe haven. Meanwhile, the recent reports showed that the Israeli army denied striking a tent camp west of Rafah, wi